Continuing the exploration of realistically large unemployment figures are in Australia and now exploring how diminutive are the work opportunities.
According to Roy Morgan’s research, there is an upward tendency in both full-time and part-time work (refer to Part 1: Figure 3). Furthermore, despite a considerable initial reduction in the post-pandemic years, both underemployment and unemployment rates have resumed an upward trend beyond 2021 (refer to Part 1: Figure 4). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data and Department of Employment estimates suggest that job opportunities have decreased in recent months. This phenomenon is most noticeable in the longer time period of Figure 4, but it is particularly pronounced in the shorter time frame of Figure 5. Statistics from the last decade show that job advertisements no longer outnumber vacancies reported by firms in ABS’s quarterly survey. In 2023, businesses reported a 45% higher number of job openings than the number of job advertisements identified by the Department of Employment. In the contemporary digital era, job recruitment has witnessed a notable shift, with a growing prevalence of online platforms serving as avenues for this purpose. Notably, platforms such as Seek, CareerOne, Australian JobSearch, LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter have emerged as prominent channels for job seekers and employers to engage in recruitment activities. One issue lies in the absence of an assessment of the latter three by the Department of Employment’s IVI statistics. That being so, statistical data show that, despite its exaggerated claims, LinkedIn is declining significantly in popularity due to the prevalence of inflated and outdated profiles (Chamberlain, 2012). Based on data from Jobvite surveys, the utilisation of LinkedIn among recruiters has experienced a decline, decreasing from 92% in 2017 to 77% in 2018, further dropping to 72% in 2020, and ultimately reaching 65% in 2021 (Jobvite – Employ Inc, 2018; Jobvite – Employ Inc, 2020; Jobvite – Employ Inc, 2021). In contrast, the percentage of workers who discovered job opportunities through social media platforms such as Facebook and LinkedIn experienced a decline from 63% in 2021 to 39% in 2022 (Jobvite – Employ Inc, 2022).
The notion that businesses assert surveyed vacancies account for an additional 45% of advertised vacancies appears questionable in its legitimacy. That equates to 32% of the total 414,800 vacancies claimed in the survey are not readily accessible for public examination (See Figure 5). Does this suggest businesses have decided to forgo extensive advertising of their job vacancies because the jobless are abundant? The nature of job structures, out-of-office work and recruitment in the aftermath of the pandemic pose unforeseen challenges (Kaye, 2023). Yet, are a third of the reported jobs not worth advertising widely? In the service industries that encompass food trade and preparation, hospitality, as well as cleaners and laundry jobs, a significant dependence exists on temporary migrants. These industries face challenges in effectively recruiting foreign workers through LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter platforms, which may not be the most suitable channels for their recruitment needs. In some industries, particularly within the public service, recruitment freezes dominate, so recruitment would not be a priority (Colley, Woods, & Head, 2021). So, what jobs do surveys indicate need to be filled, in what industries and what skills are required to fill them?
The data presented in Figure 6 illustrates the distribution of employment vacancies across different industries. The service industry accounts for 10% of the total job vacancies, while the retail industry comprises 7%. These two sectors combined contribute to a total of 72,700 available job positions. After the Job Summit, Jim Chalmers made a statement indicating his intention to facilitate the immigration of 195,000 individuals, ignoring Roy Morgan’s survey suggesting 1.3 million individuals are unemployed. The ABS, by contrast, reports around half a million individuals each month over the past year, precluding thousands who are financially bereft, despite “job attachments”. Irrespective, this number still surpasses any estimates of current job vacancies. Now disregarding any probability of exaggeration in businesses’ assertions regarding job vacancies, it is noteworthy that a substantial pool of half a million individuals is readily accessible for 414,000 jobs, even if a third remain unadvertised to the general public.
According to the statistics in Figure 7, labourers, drivers, and sales roles account for 6.2%, 5.3%, and 7.3% of the advertised job opportunities, respectively. These employment categories mostly comprise low-skilled professions, with 53,500 opportunities available across Australia. Regardless of the particular numerical numbers evaluated, it is clear that a considerable proportion, roughly one-fifth, of job openings are for relatively low-skilled jobs. A substantial number of job postings demand advanced levels of education and specialized skill sets, which have gone unfilled not just in the current month, but also in previous months and even for several years (see Figure 8).
The decline in job vacancies has been observed over the past year, since June 2022. Yet in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) in August 2023, relying on the ABS’s May 2022 data, it commented: “For the first time on record in Australia’s history, there are more job openings than unemployed people to fill the vacant positions” (Kehoe, 2022). The AFR continued to note, “the unemployment rate falling to a new 48-year low of 3.4 per cent in July”. It is worth noting that 89,000 gig economy workers did not generate any income in May 2022 despite maintaining a “job attachment.” An estimated 90,600 gig workers did not generate income in July 2022. Had these individuals not been classified as “employed” by the ABS, their inclusion in the unemployment figures for May would have increased the unemployment rate to 4.5%. This represents more than half a million individuals. In May 2022, the number of individuals counted as recipients of JobSeeker & Youth Allowance stood at 877,612, which had it represented the unemployment rate would have been 6.2%. The Roy Morgan survey also reported a figure of 1.1 million unemployment for May. John Kehoe, the economics editor at the Financial Review, enthusiastically proclaimed “one job vacancy in May for each of the 473,600 unemployed people in July”. The number of job vacancies escalated from 461,000 in the May quarter to its highest point in the past decade, reaching 475,000 in August. Despite all of the active job seekers, the percentage of vacancies by job genre/skill seldom varies more than 2% between given months (See Figure 8). Despite Kehoe’s unnuanced claims, there are always more job seekers than vacancies. The labour market is a never-ending game of musical chairs.
Contrary to popular misconceptions regarding the abundance of employment opportunities and the prevailing expectation for unemployed individuals to secure jobs, it is worth noting that a substantial number of 461,000 job positions still need to be filled (Eardley & Matheson, 2000). The subsequent survey revealed a total of 475,000 vacant positions. Ultimately, the comparison between two sets of numbers extends beyond a simple evaluation of their relative magnitudes. The absorption or filling of vacancies by the unemployed has historically been limited, regardless of the accuracy or inadequacy of official unemployment measurements.
Should we assume over one million unemployed individuals are simply recalcitrant? Vacancy figures fluctuate constantly, ranging from a minimum of 139,000 to a maximum of 475,000 over the past decade. The internal composition of total vacancies that reflect genres of job types/industries only fluctuates around 2%. Individual positions may be successfully filled, but the proportions for job openings in classes of vacancies remain relatively unchanged for extended periods. The monthly vacancy percentages within industries or sectors exhibit minimal fluctuations even over the years. (See Figure 8).
Roy Morgan’s statistics suggest the annual workforce has experienced an upward trend over the past 16 years, where a mean average additional 222,000 individuals are added per year. The labour force (those actually working or willing to work and are unemployed) has observed a mean average annual growth of 275,000 individuals per year. There is a mean average excess of 53,000 job seekers a year which explains why we have gone from 528,000 unemployed in May 2007 to 1,381,000 in August of 2023 (refer to Part 1: Fig 3).
This has contributed to the escalating issue of unemployment, although often obscured by only reporting unemployment as a percentage of the labour force. Except for the sharp fluctuations in vacancies during the Pandemic years — the last year notwithstanding — vacancies have in the last decade usually tentatively and slowly trended upwards in number (refer to Part 1: Fig 3, 4, & Part 2: Fig 5).
When examining the issue of unemployment and job vacancies, it is essential to keep in mind that the focus should not be solely on numerical statistics. Australia has 0.3% of the world’s population and 5% of the world’s land area. Our population is concentrated along a 35,877-kilometer-long coastline (the sixth-longest in the world). This means that job seekers do not necessarily live in places where there are vacant positions. As a result, when assessing claims of “labour scarcity,” it is critical to take a more comprehensive perspective. This is especially crucial given the substantial rise in the number of people actively looking for work, which contrasts with the relatively limited number of job positions available (Schultz, 2023). The persistence of enduring employment scarcity has been heightened by substantial reductions in the public sector, limited economic diversity, and the decline of Australia’s secondary trophic economic level (How, 2023). The aforementioned circumstances can be ascribed to intentional policy choices enacted by the Australian Government (Colley, Woods, & Head, 2021). Regardless of the metric, the number of unemployed people far outnumbers the number of potential job positions. It is critical to interact with the media, lawmakers, and underpaid restaurant and service sectors who argue the contrary (Onselen, 2021).
There is a need for additional job opportunities that provide fair compensation for the hours worked and prioritize the preservation of human dignity. The Government has acknowledged the widespread existence of corporate avarice and employers’ inclination to exploit their employees (Burke, O’Neil, & Giles, 2023).
The scarcity of employment opportunities is not solely attributed to quantitative factors. The discussion of employment necessitates considering various factors contributing to the challenges individuals face in securing work. These factors encompass socio-demographic characteristics, geographical location, job suitability, employer discrimination, accessibility limitations, skill and education levels, competition, financial constraints, literacy levels, inadequate remuneration, restricted working hours, employer exploitation, job conditions, domestic violence, health concerns, transportation issues, and time constraints due to parental or family responsibilities.
Regrettably, both the media and government are reluctant to have a more complex and nuanced dialogue. The media, including “A Current Affair” (Weingarth, 2020), has put out propagandistic critiques demanding the unemployed “just get a job” or “people lack the desire to work.” This shows a disdain towards the unemployed, as intellectually and psychologically deficient. Employers who exploit their employees and express frustration with the limited availability of susceptible individuals to fill their low-wage temporary positions demonstrate a comparable level of disdain. Given the objective shortage of job openings, one may claim that the derogatory media and employer groups are cognitively incompetent. This rhetoric of exploitation is justified by the long history of stagnating pay and unfavourable working conditions that have lasted for many years (Hutchens & Jericho, 2018).
Lastly, let us direct our attention exclusively on the aspect that has been previously examined, specifically, “levels of skill and education.” Figure 9 illustrates two graphs. One analyses the required competence levels for the vacant work opportunities as a whole, while the other provides forecasts for the essential skills for future employment growth. Consider that this prediction was designed to cater to a country that is characterized by a lack of extensive manufacturing capabilities, a low level of economic complexity, and an understaffed public administration. It is evident that “Skill level 1”, which represents a minimum level of education equivalent to a Bachelor’s degree, will remain significant in addressing future employment needs. It has been reflected in the distribution of job vacancies over the past three years, as illustrated in Figure 10.
The Australian policy decision to impose significant educational debts on young people in exchange for a degree, might now be seen as a regrettable demonstration of limited foresight. For now, the “Skill Level 4” category demonstrates a substantial number of job opportunities, ranking second in terms of magnitude. However, the principal and most prominent categories of vacancies are not considered worthy of strategic mission planning.
The acquisition of a high school diploma or a “Certificate I” degree limits the range of opportunities available to young adults. Assuming that current federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers is honest in his commitment to establishing a full-employment economy, would not the policies advocated by prior Australian Prime Ministers Curtin, Chiefly, and Menzies be more applicable?
It is instructive to explore the conceptualization of Full Employment. In Anthony O’Donnell’s book, it is said that the Labour government relied upon Keynes’ General Theory for the economic principles behind the maintenance of full employment (O’Donnell, 2019. Pg 70). The policy influencers reached the conclusion: “Full employment was defined as a ‘high and stable level of employment’, which meant slightly more jobs than the number of people seeking work, with as far as possible the jobs being ‘of the right kind and in the right place’, and with people who found it necessary to change occupations being helped to do so ‘as promptly as possible” (O’Donnell, 2019; p. 66). Nonetheless, as John Kehoe highlighted, our progress toward that goal has been disappointing. Despite temporary appearances of achieving equality, he failed to recognize the 90,000 people who, although having a “job attachment,” did not work or secure income for a month, leading to their exclusion from the ABS total.
A more pragmatic solution, in addition to the shortage of existing job opportunities, may comprise developing higher education programs in institutions that are tailored to our projected future demands, a step reminiscent of Gough Whitlam’s educational policies. These provisions apply to a number of European countries with lower GDP and resources than Australia. Jim Chalmers’ educational program, on the other hand, was limited to a few Technical and Further Education (TAFE) courses, qualifying Australians for a narrower portion of potential work prospects.
Long-term constraints on actual employment development in this country, as well as the persistent dissemination of misleading information claiming low unemployment figures, are all obstructions. This is despite the fact that productivity growth has typically surpassed wage growth. It is unsurprising that employers are claiming challenges in recruiting individuals for positions that lack appeal across various skill levels (OECD, 2018; Ch 2, Pg 56). Examining the underlying causes of the emergence of job vacancies reveals this much (See Figure 10). According to McKinsley research, done in 2022, 41% of Australian workers, expressed intentions to voluntarily end their employment during the following 3-6 months (De Smet, Dowling, Hancock, & Schaninger, 2022). Surveys have regularly shown that vacancies arise as a result of a range of conditions over the years. However, more than 70% of these terminations are the result of being required to replace people who have resigned or left due to incompatibility challenges. The Australian job market has basic flaws in its portrayal, support, and development of monetary and fiscal policies by the government.
Australia’s economic future must address unemployment, job markets, economic complexity, interest rate policies, corporate-driven inflation, income disparity, austerity measures lacking social support, and educational demands. Failure to recognize these realities as well as alleviate the environmental damage and waste we produce, will compound our current dire situation. Governments, the media, and economists must face these challenges realistically, rather than hiding behind the propaganda of flawed metrics.
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